A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
